The Four Scenarios of the 2020 Election

The 2020 election is almost over. The contours of the race have been remarkably stable. Democrats have been favored to win since the day after the 2016, while Trump’s base of support has remained more or less constant through every major controversy. Trump’s approval rating has been between 37% and 45% with the only real variation coming from polling outliers. Democrats had an essentially low bar to meet: nominate a candidate that isn’t as hated as Hillary Clinton.

They met that challenge with Joe Biden. (Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and several others also likely would have). The race…